Economic Development

Immigration survey with conflicting results

Immigration is an eternal topic among Hong Kong people. A recent poll found that one in four people planned to immigrate, a slight increase from half a year ago. Coincidentally, Democratic Thought also released a poll last month, and the willingness to immigrate dropped significantly compared to half a year ago. The two surveys rose and the other fell. Many people asked the author how to interpret it. What is even more curious is who is more accurate?

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Counting the scale of immigration waves

After the political changes, Hong Kong is no longer the same. Foreign countries have taken advantage of this situation to tailor-make new visa channels, making whether to leave or stay become a decision that is close to many people's eyes. Coupled with the COVID-19 epidemic, some people have left Hong Kong to avoid the epidemic. In the middle of last year, Hong Kong's net emigration exceeded 75,000, a record high; last month, Hong Kong's net emigration exceeded 65,000, which was also a new high after the implementation of travel restrictions. The media's search for stories of people living in foreign lands and the images of relatives and friends farewelling at the airport have become evidence of the reappearance of the immigration wave in the eyes of many people. They ask in their hearts: If a large number of Hong Kong people leave Hong Kong, will this still be the original city? There are three related phenomena worth clarifying in this question: how large the exodus is, whether they originally belong to the city, and whether the immigration situation will continue.

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Winter Olympics Diplomacy

The Beijing Winter Olympics is more about politics than sports, which is a disgrace to the scenery. This is a great power competition after the decoupling of China and the United States. It is in the same world as Japan and Japan, and international relations have changed several times. Officials continue to play the human rights card. The West criticizes China for producing Xinjiang cotton suspected of forced labor, setting up so-called re-education camps for the Uyghurs, and suppressing freedom of assembly, freedom of speech and democratic space in Hong Kong. The public is playing the environmental card and is concerned about the water and electricity consumption of artificial snow and the risk of injury to athletes. The ski jumping platform rebuilt on the site of an industrial park was supposed to be a model of frugality in running the Olympics, but it was scorned as a smoky nuclear power plant. Peng Shuai’s low-key appearance in the auditorium helped Beijing dismantle bombs and dismantle the restrictions in the international spotlight.

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Common prosperity and disparity between rich and poor

Under the order of "common prosperity", large companies enthusiastically donated money and were jokingly called "protection fees." Shared prosperity is originally a policy of the Mainland and has nothing to do with Hong Kong. However, according to the stock market news, hundreds of millions of Chinese listed companies have lost their market value, and Hong Kong businessmen doing business in the Mainland are also confused and frightened. The timing coincides with vigorous regulatory actions, as antitrust and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital have been listed as key tasks since last year. Internet companies received hefty fines, chaos in the fandom and bad actors were punished, and the double-cut policy cracked down on the tutoring industry, leading people to mistakenly equate common prosperity with looting private projects.

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Economic recovery is in sight and transformation and development are planned

The COVID-19 epidemic is raging and Hong Kong is facing unprecedented difficulties. The economy contracted by 6.1% in 2020, the largest decline on record. The unemployment rate is 5.9%, which is also a historical high. Tourism, construction and other consumer industries are the hardest hit areas. Overall trade rebounded sharply after a sharp decline in the first half of the year, mainly benefiting from the growth in exports to the mainland, but still recorded a slight decline throughout the year. As for trade in services, tourism and transportation came to a standstill, and only cross-border financial and fund-raising activities were active, leading to a slight increase in financial services. With the promulgation and implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, society has gradually stabilized, but the road to economic recovery is still long.

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healthy for inducement

The epidemic has upended the order of our lives and made us reflect on everything around us. The Hong Kong Arts Festival staged the drama "The Plague", adapted from the novel by Camus, the Nobel Prize winner for Literature, and it is a work that responds to the occasion. The original work depicts the life of the plague, including residents who sing and sing every night, fanatics who take advantage of the fire, priests who regard disasters as divine punishment, and heroes who organize folk medical teams. Death has become a daily routine, and lockdown means loneliness, exile and helplessness. By the time the epidemic port reopens, the surviving protagonist has lost his wife and friends. He has also experienced the reality and cruelty of human nature, and realizes that the plague in the human heart is more difficult to eradicate than the virus. Only courage can overcome despair. The port city described by Camus is somewhat similar to Hong Kong. After the epidemic subsides, will we feel the same loss?

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Young people want to venture abroad

The struggle between China and the West is turbulent. The Five Eyes Alliance has adjusted its policy towards Hong Kong, focusing on attacking people's hearts. It has relaxed immigration measures and accelerated the dispersal of Hong Kong people to foreign lands. First, there is the new BNO visa in the UK. Although it has welfare restrictions, it is enough to pave the way for naturalization. Canada is recruiting highly educated Hong Kong people, while Australia is retaining local graduates and high-skilled workers. Even though the epidemic makes it difficult to travel far away, the doors of many countries have been opened to high-quality immigrants. The wave of resignations in the professional sector is rampant. It is not difficult for early-career young people to leave, wearing square hats and holding BNOs in their hands. This makes people worry that Hong Kong is gradually entering the dusk.

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Why should Hong Kong join RCEP?

When Sino-US relations fell to a freezing point, the ten ASEAN countries and the five countries of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand signed RCEP, reaching the world's largest trade agreement. Among Hong Kong's top ten trading partners, RCEP members account for seven. In order to avoid being marginalized, we must strive to join. Trade agreements are like technical documents, bitter and difficult to understand. It is normal for this economic headline to be popular among the public and the public. Closer business ties and more extensive personnel exchanges will slowly emerge in the future, but those who see doubts are protesting and hope to correct them.

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The problem is social injustice

The HSBC Bronze Lion reappeared, and Chinese merchants removed the hoardings, looking through the business community to judge that the social movement has cooled down. Recovery from the epidemic is the top agenda. Citizens are tired of fighting the epidemic and hope to shorten social distance. The industry is also striving to relax various restrictions, envisioning travel bubbles and health codes, and hoping to resume economic activities as soon as possible. The forty years of the Shenzhen Special Administrative Region have focused the attention of all walks of life on the evolution of the competition between the two cities. The 14th Five-Year Plan also reminds Hong Kong to pay attention to its socio-economic status in the overall national development situation. Although pro-democracy members who do not support the Basic Law and are not loyal to the SAR have been expelled from the Legislative Council by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which has shaken the political arena, the public has once again paid attention to economic and people's livelihood issues. It is believed that the answer to the Hong Kong issue in the "Policy Address" will continue to be based on restoring the economy and Alleviating people's difficulties is the main focus.

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Find a way out for economic and people's livelihood difficulties

Hong Kong experienced a difficult year in 2019. Social events brought a heavy atmosphere. The global economy was constrained by Sino-US relations, and the Hong Kong issue was regarded as a bargaining chip in the international game. For the whole year, GDP shrank by 1.2%, marking the first annual decline since 2009 and falling into a technical recession. In a series of incidents caused by the revision of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance, nearly 7,000 people were arrested, and the social situation is of concern. The United States took the opportunity to pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, believing that Hong Kong will be caught between the disputes between China and the United States for a long time. To cope with the multiple challenges of social problems, economic downturn and competition between major powers, we need to make good arrangements in the future to get out of the predicament.

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