Phoenix TV

Iran is isolated in the Middle East, fighting a six-week war against the US and Israel alone, ultimately forcing the US to agree to a ceasefire and peace talks. The source of their confidence in this protracted power struggle deserves further investigation. Iran's retaliatory measure of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has prevented the Trump administration from achieving a swift victory, becoming a strategic weakness that the US has struggled to overcome. The superficial cooperation between the US and Israel has led to a protracted stalemate, directly impacting the success of ceasefire negotiations and raising widespread concerns about the potential for war to escalate into a world war.

Just as the US-Israel-Iran war was beginning to yield some interesting discussions, the Strait of Hormuz became the focal point. Despite US pressure, Iran still passed legislation to charge fees. Are there any legal issues or controversies surrounding these fees in international shipping lanes, especially at natural ports?

Under the guise of peace negotiations, the US and Israel launched a joint airstrike on Tehran, the Iranian capital, in a decapitation strike that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and 40 other high-ranking officials, with the aim of completely overthrowing the Iranian regime. Iran immediately established an interim committee, blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a full-scale counterattack, but found itself diplomatically isolated. Amidst this double blow of natural disaster and man-made calamity, Iran's future remains uncertain, oil and gold prices have soared, and the situation in the Middle East and even globally faces severe instability.

The Oman talks between the US and Iran ended without success. Reports indicate that the US's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Ford, has entered the Mediterranean, joining the USS Lincoln already in the Arabian Sea, ready to launch a pincer attack on Iran. Israel is actively lobbying Washington to expand its "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign, attempting to force Iran into a complete compromise while it is mired in internal turmoil and economic collapse, pushing the situation to the brink of military miscalculation. Beset by internal and external difficulties, Iran faces a brutal choice between regime survival and strategic surrender.

British Prime Minister Starmer visited China for two days, accompanied by business representatives from 50 companies. I heard that the trade agreements are worth more than $100 billion. Is that considered a big deal?

The US kidnapped the Venezuelan president to New York for trial, disregarding international order. The international community upholds sovereignty and justice, condemning this hegemonic act. However, some argue that using the guise of "justice" justifies rampant robbery. With the US midterm elections approaching, how will public opinion reflect this? Trump's bluff and plans to withdraw from multiple international organizations raise the question: is he withdrawing from the world stage or becoming even more reckless?

The US and Ukraine reached a consensus on "90%" in Berlin, but this mainly involves institutional arrangements such as security guarantees, military aid coordination, and reconstruction. The real obstacle is the territorial status, which cannot be technically addressed. The West attempted to stabilize the controllable 80% in Ukraine with a "like Article 5" agreement, but Kyiv insisted on not ceding territory or recognizing the aggression, while Moscow insisted on legal recognition as a prerequisite for peace, leading to a structural confrontation between the two sides.
Therefore, "90%" signifies the initial formation of a framework for the system, but does not represent a peaceful approach; the remaining 10% sovereignty issue is the core factor determining whether the agreement can be implemented. The next step will test whether the international community can build sustainable security and economic support for Ukraine without recognizing the use of force to change the borders, and will also be a stress test for the European security order.

Kaohsiung City's statement that "a contingency in Taiwan" should be included in the National Security Law's provisions for crisis situations implies that Japan can invoke its collective self-defense rights to support US military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, ending strategic ambiguity. Two weeks later, the US finally publicly supported this, placing orders for Japan to export Patriot missiles to replenish US military inventory, validating the integration of the defense industry into the US supply chain. While this increases deterrence, it may also exacerbate coordination between China and Russia, leading to the birth of a new regional "cold peace." Beijing's postponement of the China-Japan-South Korea cultural conference and the imposition of travel warnings and seafood bans demonstrate its strategy of using economic penalties to deter security threats. Northeast Asia is entering a new normal of high risk and low mutual trust; what will be the next sanction? Crisis management may be more urgent than increasing arms purchases.

Amidst a turbulent international situation, Sino-Russian relations continue to warm. Xi Jinping's meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin demonstrates a comprehensive deepening of bilateral cooperation in high-level interactions, economic and trade cooperation, and institutional alignment. Emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and green development are becoming new engines for bilateral cooperation, promoting the alignment of the 15th Five-Year Plan with Russia's development strategy and strengthening institutionalized cooperation. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Hergesse visited South Korea, emphasizing that the core of the US-ROK alliance remains deterring North Korea and promoting "strategic flexibility" for US troops stationed in South Korea to counter the challenge from China. South Korea, however, is responding cautiously, concerned about the impact on its homeland defense capabilities. South Korea has also increased its defense and AI budgets, promoted the construction of nuclear submarines and the transfer of operational control, demonstrating its determination for military self-reliance. The deepening strategic cooperation between China and Russia, and the adjustment of the US-ROK alliance structure, are quietly reshaping the Indo-Pacific region.

International law explicitly defines Russia as an aggressor, and the United Nations has repeatedly demanded its withdrawal. NATO and the US and Europe are merely supporters, not belligerents. NATO cooperated with Russia after the Cold War, until the Crimean War and the 2022 invasion. After ceasefire negotiations stalled, Trump turned to targeting Russia's energy revenues, demonstrating a "carrot and stick" strategy rather than replacing the arbitrators of the parties involved.

Ukraine has been able to hold out for four years thanks to a long chain of support from the US and Europe: Patriot air defense, HIMARS, ATACMS, and over €300 billion in aid, forming the structural pillars of its resistance against Russian forces. Without this chain, Ukraine would have struggled to withstand multiple waves of airstrikes and ground attacks. The conflict in Eastern Europe remains a stalemate; true peace requires security barriers and multilateral coordination, not a single summit.