Current Affairs Unveiled

The Oman talks between the US and Iran ended without success. Reports indicate that the US's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Ford, has entered the Mediterranean, joining the USS Lincoln already in the Arabian Sea, ready to launch a pincer attack on Iran. Israel is actively lobbying Washington to expand its "maximum pressure 2.0" campaign, attempting to force Iran into a complete compromise while it is mired in internal turmoil and economic collapse, pushing the situation to the brink of military miscalculation. Beset by internal and external difficulties, Iran faces a brutal choice between regime survival and strategic surrender.

The US and Ukraine reached a consensus on "90%" in Berlin, but this mainly involves institutional arrangements such as security guarantees, military aid coordination, and reconstruction. The real obstacle is the territorial status, which cannot be technically addressed. The West attempted to stabilize the controllable 80% in Ukraine with a "like Article 5" agreement, but Kyiv insisted on not ceding territory or recognizing the aggression, while Moscow insisted on legal recognition as a prerequisite for peace, leading to a structural confrontation between the two sides.
Therefore, "90%" signifies the initial formation of a framework for the system, but does not represent a peaceful approach; the remaining 10% sovereignty issue is the core factor determining whether the agreement can be implemented. The next step will test whether the international community can build sustainable security and economic support for Ukraine without recognizing the use of force to change the borders, and will also be a stress test for the European security order.

Kaohsiung City's statement that "a contingency in Taiwan" should be included in the National Security Law's provisions for crisis situations implies that Japan can invoke its collective self-defense rights to support US military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, ending strategic ambiguity. Two weeks later, the US finally publicly supported this, placing orders for Japan to export Patriot missiles to replenish US military inventory, validating the integration of the defense industry into the US supply chain. While this increases deterrence, it may also exacerbate coordination between China and Russia, leading to the birth of a new regional "cold peace." Beijing's postponement of the China-Japan-South Korea cultural conference and the imposition of travel warnings and seafood bans demonstrate its strategy of using economic penalties to deter security threats. Northeast Asia is entering a new normal of high risk and low mutual trust; what will be the next sanction? Crisis management may be more urgent than increasing arms purchases.

Amidst a turbulent international situation, Sino-Russian relations continue to warm. Xi Jinping's meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin demonstrates a comprehensive deepening of bilateral cooperation in high-level interactions, economic and trade cooperation, and institutional alignment. Emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and green development are becoming new engines for bilateral cooperation, promoting the alignment of the 15th Five-Year Plan with Russia's development strategy and strengthening institutionalized cooperation. Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Hergesse visited South Korea, emphasizing that the core of the US-ROK alliance remains deterring North Korea and promoting "strategic flexibility" for US troops stationed in South Korea to counter the challenge from China. South Korea, however, is responding cautiously, concerned about the impact on its homeland defense capabilities. South Korea has also increased its defense and AI budgets, promoted the construction of nuclear submarines and the transfer of operational control, demonstrating its determination for military self-reliance. The deepening strategic cooperation between China and Russia, and the adjustment of the US-ROK alliance structure, are quietly reshaping the Indo-Pacific region.

Sanae Takaichi has finally become Prime Minister, Japan's first female Prime Minister. I delve into her political dealings with the Japan Restoration Party, examining the power struggles hidden behind them. Can the new cabinet balance the interests of the party?