Nativism spreads by taking advantage of the conflicts between the mainland and Hong Kong, impacting Hong Kong's political landscape. Democratic Ideas publishes the "One Country, Two Systems Index" every six months. The latest round has observed a significant decline in non-establishment supporters, society is showing signs of de-radicalization, and moderate politics is growing. Opponents firmly believe that even if radicalism ebbs, it will make a comeback if the situation changes in the future. They even use the excuse that the survey results only reflect the illusion that citizens are "moderate". If it is not due to a change in public sentiment and non-establishment factions turning to moderates and establishment factions, can the "indifferent theory" and "scorched earth theory" alone be enough to explain it?
Non-establishment supporters drop significantly
The "indifferent theory" means that supporters remained silent at the low ebb of the social movement, and the split in the non-establishment camp sharply reduced the intention to vote in the two Legislative Council by-elections in 2018, but they forgot about the by-election in early 2016, even though Leung Tin-chi was running Let nativism become the focus, and the turnout rate is actually almost the same as last year. There is no sudden drop caused by the so-called disinterested voters. The "scorched earth theory" claims that the non-establishment factions have deprived the gains of the courageous resistance line and prefer to vote for the establishment faction as punishment. In the two by-elections in Kowloon West, Lee Cheuk-yan and Frederick Fung were pursued and beaten by the scorched-earth faction. However, the difference between Yao Songyan's votes and the sum of Lee and Fung's votes was less than one percent, and the latter's votes did not decrease but increased. Contrary to the goals of the Scorched Earth faction, mobilization was questionable. Furthermore, the above two arguments only refer to last year’s by-election. In fact, a random sample telephone poll on democratic ideas was commissioned by the Asia-Pacific Institute of CUHK. The results also coincide with the HKU poll, which can be traced back to the end of 2016. , it can be seen that the rise of moderate politics is not a temporary change and has scientific basis.
Western politics continues to shift to the right and has not stopped advocating for protection consciousness and populist movements. Hong Kong may not be able to survive the international wave alone, and nativism is more likely to ferment again. Bolsonaro, who took office at the beginning of the year, is the first right-wing president since the end of Brazil's military regime. Netanyahu was re-elected as Israeli Prime Minister last week with the support of the far-right camp. Anti-immigration forces are also very strong in the European Parliament elections next month. Opportunities continue to expand. However, it remains to be seen whether moderate elements will take the lead in re-activating the US political arena and set a global example for the dissipation of right-leaning ideas. Trump has further seeped anti-foreign sentiment into the White House, and the Democratic Party has emerged with many presidential primary candidates who are moving increasingly to the left. However, neither extreme populist politics is what the public wants, so they are moving closer to the middle line. Currently, Biden is the candidate. Representatives have the highest voice.
Recognizing that there is no way out for populism and bravery, turning to moderateness is believed to be a more reasonable explanation for deradicalization. Many problems in Hong Kong cannot be answered by exclusivism alone. Take medical care as an example. There is an imbalance between supply and demand in public hospitals. Nativists focus on demand issues such as new immigrants occupying public resources, but ignore the aging population and poverty issues, which have led to a sharp increase in medical needs. In addition, due to economic conditions, the burden on public hospitals has been increased. It is also an oversimplification to attribute the housing problem to the source of population reduction. It ignores the fact that most of the one-way permit holders are provided with residence by their family members living in Hong Kong. Moreover, the spread of cross-border marriages has changed the family structure. One unit cannot be freed up by one less person.
Recognize that populism and bravery have no way out
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the May 4th Movement. Witnessing the Revolution of 1911 evolving into a warlord regime, and public opinion empty talk about the doctrine of national salvation, Hu Shi wrote "Study more problems, talk less about "isms"" to advise the people to study the problems that urgently need to be solved. Find ways to relieve society. How can Hong Kong citizens, who are pragmatic, always follow slogan-based political consciousness? Regardless of which faction, if nothing is achieved on social issues, it will only be a matter of time before supporters become disappointed and leave.
Ray Poon
Democratic thinking director
