The US midterm elections are becoming a hidden variable in the global security landscape. To alleviate domestic inflation and voter pressure, Washington has shifted to transactional diplomacy: unilaterally reducing US-South Korea military exercises in exchange for diplomatic achievements with North Korea, and showing signs of fatigue in the Middle East and Ukraine. Various parties are seizing the opportunity to adjust their strategies: Iran is using the Strait of Hormuz to pressure energy prices; China, Russia, and North Korea are deepening cooperation; Gulf states are signing the Mecca Agreement to promote defense autonomy; and Ukrainian technocrats are using the opportunity to challenge the current regime. The global order is rapidly fragmenting, with allies seeking multilateral hedging to mitigate the uncertainty of US commitments.
Cutting military exercises between South Korea and the United States: to ease tensions in Northeast Asia or to weaken U.S. security commitments?
