Since the end of World War II, the prosperity of globalization has relied heavily on a core premise: a global system of freedom of navigation led and guaranteed by the U.S. Navy. However, in the Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026, this "global public good" that had been maintained for decades was declared bankrupt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Faced with Iran's aggressive blockade and demands for fees, US President Trump made remarks that shocked the international community, demanding that allies "get their own oil." He further explicitly demanded that countries assume responsibility for protecting their own territories and shipping lanes, and that the US military no longer act as a free policeman for the Strait of Hormuz. This blatant transactional diplomacy signifies that the US, based on its "America First" principle, is formally withdrawing from its role as a guarantor of global maritime security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This strategic retreat has created a massive geopolitical vacuum, directly threatening the collapse of the rules-based international order. When upholding freedom of navigation is no longer the obligation of major powers, maritime security has degenerated from a public good into a private bargaining chip in the power struggle between nations. Although the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the United Nations have strongly condemned attacks on shipping and attempted to form a new task force, these appeals appear weak and ineffective in the absence of the military backing of core major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the United States backing down, Iran has successfully established a new "two-track" shipping order in the Strait of Hormuz based on political stances. Tehran has announced a "whitelist" of six countries, allowing their vessels safe passage after obtaining approval and paying fees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, following regional talks with Iran, the Malaysian Prime Minister confirmed that Malaysian vessels were permitted passage. China also confirmed that its ships had recently passed smoothly through the strait. In contrast, Western vessels, excluded from the strait, face the serious threat of mines and a potential blockade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This artificial disruption of supply chains has inflicted devastating damage on global supply chains. For merchant ships unable to navigate the strait, the detour distance has tripled, and logistics costs have quadrupled. This is not merely a short-term logistical disruption, but a structural reassessment of global trade costs. Multinational corporations and the freight industry must prepare for this kind of ongoing geopolitical tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The surge in shipping costs and the disruption of energy supplies have directly triggered a high "war premium" in the crude oil market. This energy shock caused by geopolitical conflict is spreading to Western economies and has shattered the inflation expectations that central banks around the world have worked so hard to quell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In an era where trade routes can be weaponized for political gain at any time, the "Just-in-Time" model that pursues ultimate efficiency is no longer applicable. Governments and multinational corporations are forced to shift to a "Just-in-Case" strategic logic, accelerating the nearshore and friendly-shore outsourcing of supply chains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The United States' strategic withdrawal from the Strait of Hormuz is forcing countries around the world to rethink the necessity of strategic autonomy. As the arteries of global trade are privatized and politicized, international leaders must realize that the era of cheap energy and frictionless trade is over. Adapting to this high-cost, high-risk, fragmented global trade system will be a harsh reality that no economy can avoid in the next decade.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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