The Trump administration is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East with "maximum pressure 2.0." Under the military deterrence of two aircraft carriers, the indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Muscat highlight the dangers of "coercive diplomacy." When Washington's demands for "comprehensive concessions" clash with Tehran's "uncompromising" missile red line, this strategy, which deeply intertwines military threats with the diplomatic agenda, is pushing the Persian Gulf to the brink of tactical miscalculation and regional conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In recent years, great power rivalry has often relied on economic sanctions and diplomatic mediation. However, the current US strategy towards Iran has blatantly reverted to "coercive diplomacy" centered on overwhelming military superiority. The Trump administration is attempting to exploit the vulnerability of Iran's domestic turmoil to force Tehran to accept a comprehensive agreement that goes far beyond the nuclear issue. This strategy of maximum pressure, using aircraft carrier strike groups as the backdrop for negotiations, may seem to gain the upper hand in the short term, but from a long-term perspective of institutional and strategic interaction, it is fraught with structural contradictions and the risk of spiraling out of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The current negotiating landscape is heavily overshadowed by Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025. At that time, the U.S. military deployed 125 aircraft and massive bunker buster bombs to launch an unprecedented direct strike against key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. The Trump administration viewed this as a successful demonstration of American resolve, believing that only a substantial military strike could force the Iranian leadership to confront the U.S. red lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Under this logic, the current deployment of the US military presents an unusually aggressive posture. Currently, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is conducting deterrence missions in the Arabian Sea. According to Xinhua News Agency and the Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon is further assessing the possibility of deploying the recently completed USS George HW Bush or the USS George Washington, based in Asia, to the Middle East. If this deployment materializes, it will be the first time since March 2025 that the US military has maintained two carrier strike groups in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This military deterrence extends beyond the seas, reaching directly to the negotiating table. According to reports from Al Jazeera and other media outlets, in the indirect negotiations held in Muscat, the capital of Oman, the US delegation, in addition to Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner, unusually included Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of CENTCOM, dressed in military uniform. This "military escort diplomacy" embodies the deterrent power of aircraft carriers, sending Iran a binary ultimatum: compromise or war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the strong military pressure did not lead to smooth negotiations; instead, it exposed a serious "agenda disconnect" between the two sides on strategic objectives. The US sought a "comprehensive agreement," clearly outlining five core demands: Iran must achieve "zero enrichment" and dismantle its nuclear facilities, completely terminate its ballistic missile program, cease support for proxies of the "axis of resistance" (such as Hamas and Hezbollah), improve human rights conditions, and commit to regional non-aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast, Iran's stance remains firm. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, quoted by Iran's International Television, reiterated that the sole agenda for negotiations is limited to the nuclear energy issue. For Iran, after the damage to proxy forces like Hamas and Hezbollah caused by last year's regional conflict, ballistic missiles have become its "last shield" for national survival. Therefore, Iran considers its missile program an "absolutely non-negotiable" cornerstone of defense and strongly rejects the US demand to transfer enriched uranium to a third country. This fundamental contradiction has kept the Muscat negotiations at a preliminary stage of information exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The greatest risk of "coercive diplomacy" lies in over-reliance on military force while underestimating the opponent's resilience and countermeasures. Faced with the US military's increasing pressure, Iran has not sat idly by but has adopted a defensive principle of "active deterrence." Recently, a report by the US civic group "Coalition Against Iran's Nuclear Weapons" pointed out that Iran has not only conducted missile tests in Semnan and Isfahan, but satellite images also show it using heavy machinery to reinforce the underground entrance to the Isfahan nuclear facility to prevent a US bunker buster attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even more worrying is that if tactical friction gets out of control, the entire Persian Gulf region will be affected. Iran has explicitly warned its Gulf neighbors, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, that if their territories are attacked, US bases in those countries will immediately become targets of retaliation. Despite the Gulf states' efforts to mediate and their public refusal to lend their airspace for attack, they are still forced to accelerate the deployment of missile defense systems such as THAAD and Patriot in order to protect themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the face of unprecedented global changes, "aircraft carrier diplomacy" alone can no longer easily subdue a regional power with a vast missile arsenal and asymmetric warfare capabilities. If Washington insists on pursuing a "perfect agreement" that includes missile and proxy issues while ignoring the Iranian regime's bottom line, this high-risk game could very well slide from a diplomatic stalemate into a catastrophic regional conflict.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The Trump administration is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East with "maximum pressure 2.0." Under the military deterrence of two aircraft carriers, the indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Muscat highlight the dangers of "coercive diplomacy." When Washington's demands for "comprehensive concessions" clash with Tehran's "uncompromising" missile red line, this strategy, which deeply intertwines military threats with the diplomatic agenda, is pushing the Persian Gulf to the brink of tactical miscalculation and regional conflict.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3469,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[115],"class_list":["post-3468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-affairs","tag-115"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3468","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3468"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3468\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3470,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3468\/revisions\/3470"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}