The US-Israeli coalition's "decapitation" operation not only eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader but also completely ended the country's 37-year-long theocratic political era. In the vacuum created by the paralyzed constitutional process due to the war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took full control of the country. However, the militarized authoritarian regime, lacking religious legitimacy and facing economic collapse, is pushing Iran into an even more dangerous abyss of governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The sudden collapse of the theocratic center and the dysfunction of constitutionalism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In late February 2026, the Middle East experienced a historic upheaval. The joint US-Israel military operations "Operation Epic Fury" and "Operation Roar of the Lion" fundamentally altered the power balance in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This operation, centered on decapitation strikes, precisely eliminated Iran's 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who had ruled for 37 years. According to a recent report by the Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank, the coalition forces also killed over forty high-ranking military and political figures, including Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mousavi, Defense Minister Nasir Zadeh, and Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Ground Forces, Pakpour. This series of physical eliminations has plunged the country into an unprecedented power vacuum and a period of governance restructuring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From an institutional and political science perspective, the smooth transition of any regime depends heavily on the effective operation of established constitutional mechanisms. According to Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, when the Supreme Leader is vacant, a temporary leadership council composed of President Pezeshkian, the Chief Justice, and a judge from the Constitutional Oversight Council shall temporarily assume the duties. The legitimate successor must be elected by a "Conference of Experts" composed of 88 senior clerics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, under the saturation attacks of modern high-tech warfare, this peacetime-based institutional design appears extremely fragile. The War Institute report also indicates that the coalition forces conducted nearly 900 airstrikes on 17 Iranian provinces in the first 12 hours, completely destroying the command and control center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Middle East Forum, a US think tank specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, points out that in a quasi-wartime state where communications are disrupted and personal safety cannot be guaranteed, expert meetings, mostly composed of elderly clergy, are simply unable to safely convene and reach a consensus. This procedural paralysis caused by war renders the constitutionally mandated succession process ineffective, creating the necessary conditions for military blocs with actual armed forces to forcibly intervene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Revolutionary Guard's Complete Takeover: From Religious Dictatorship to Military Authoritarianism<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Catalyzed by a power vacuum, Iran's political system is undergoing a profound, unannounced transformation. According to Iran's international television channel, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, with its vast resources controlling approximately 80% of the country's economic lifeline and its remaining armed coercive power, is rapidly filling the void left by the theocratic center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The swift rise of Ahmed al-Wahhidi as the new Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps not only fills a gap in the military command chain but also signifies a complete transfer of supreme decision-making power to the military. Previously, while the Revolutionary Guard wielded immense power, it remained within the framework of the Supreme Leader's "divine right" legitimacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, with the veneer of theocracy torn away by violence, Iran's governance model is rapidly degenerating into a naked militarized authoritarian regime. In the potential succession struggle, the Economic Times of India analysis suggests that Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is a potential candidate favored by the military to maintain the status quo due to his deep understanding of the "deep state" system; while Ali Larijani, with his strong national security background, is seen as a potential regent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A deep-seated governance crisis stemming from the loss of the "legitimacy" shield.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n However, relying solely on military takeover cannot conceal, and may even exacerbate, the deep-seated contradictions within Iran. The legitimacy of the regime in Iran is facing complete bankruptcy, most directly manifested in the utter breakdown of the economic and social contract. The nationwide protests that erupted at the end of 2025 have exposed the Iranian people's utter despair over economic collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By early 2026, the Iranian rial is expected to plummet to a historic low, with inflation projected to exceed 601 TP3T. Regarding extreme repression and the loss of popular support, the violent crackdown by the authorities during the January 2026 protests resulted in the deaths of thousands, possibly as many as 20,000 protesters. This event, known as the "January Massacre," utterly destroyed the regime's domestic legitimacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, a crisis of confidence among the internal elite has also surfaced. Data from the online media outlet Debug Lies News shows that more than $400 million in cryptocurrency has been transferred to unregulated overseas exchanges, reflecting serious concerns within the system about the stability of the transition period and a "jump ship" mentality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When a regime places its hopes for survival entirely on military repression and retaliatory military actions against foreign powers, while losing the ability to engage in dialogue with all levels of society, its internal collapse is only a matter of time. Post-theocratic Iran has not ushered in a dawn; instead, it has entered a more unstable historical blind spot, highly susceptible to warlordism or national fragmentation.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The US-Israeli coalition's "decapitation" operation not only eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader but also completely ended the country's 37-year-long theocratic political era. In the vacuum created by the paralyzed constitutional process due to the war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took full control of the country. However, the militarized authoritarian regime, lacking religious legitimacy and facing economic collapse, is pushing Iran into an even more dangerous abyss of governance.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[115],"class_list":["post-3462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-affairs","tag-115"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3462"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3462\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3464,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3462\/revisions\/3464"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}