As the Russo-Ukrainian war enters its fifth year on February 24, 2026, the conflict has transcended a simple territorial dispute, evolving into a war of attrition testing industrial capacity and social resilience. On the eve of its fourth anniversary, Russia's massive airstrikes were not merely a military operation, but also a meticulously planned "anniversary politics" maneuver. Faced with Moscow's systematic attacks on infrastructure and saturation strikes, Ukraine is grappling with a dual crisis: depletion of air defense interception ammunition and the near collapse of its energy network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Anniversary Political Science and Systemic Paralysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking back at the offensive on February 22, the Russian military's tactical logic had shifted from initial broad-based fire coverage to a precise "systemic paralysis" of key nodes. In that nighttime airstrike, Russia deployed approximately 50 missiles and nearly 300 drones. Notably, the attack combination included four Zirkon hypersonic missiles and 22 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, with the clear objective of penetrating Ukraine's most heavily fortified air defense network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This high-intensity display of firepower carries a strong dual strategic intent, both domestically and internationally. Domestically, the Kremlin is engaging in symbolic maneuvering through its global diplomatic networks, such as displaying a Soviet-WWII-themed banner at its Seoul embassy with the slogan "Victory Will Be Ours," and ignoring demands for its removal from the host country, thereby consolidating domestic support for a protracted war. Internationally, this sends a clear and forceful signal to the West, following the breakdown of the Geneva peace talks, that Moscow's military agenda is not constrained by diplomatic cycles or "war fatigue."<\/p>\n\n\n\n Extreme testing of the energy grid and the survival deficit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n In reshaping battlefield psychology, Russia is using "asymmetric attrition" to weaponize the suffering of civilians in exchange for geopolitical leverage. This strategy, known as "energy terrorism," aims to create a "survival deficit" during the harsh winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The scale of the damage is alarming, as measured by quantitative data. According to the "Russia Matters" research project at Harvard University's Kennedy School, by February 2026, Ukraine's energy grid had lost approximately 58.51 TP3T of total generating capacity, including a staggering 901 TP3T of thermal power capacity destroyed. Thermal power plays a crucial role in balancing the fluctuating demand of industrial and residential power grids; its loss has resulted in many areas having only 3 to 4 hours of electricity per day. In the capital, Kyiv, attacks on combined heat and power plants have left nearly 6,000 multi-story buildings without central heating, with 1,100 of them unable to be repaired throughout the winter. The collapse of infrastructure has directly triggered a new wave of displacement; in late January 2026 alone, approximately 600,000 residents were evacuated from Kyiv due to unreliable water and electricity supplies. Nationwide, the total number of displaced persons has reached 10.6 million, representing nearly 241 TP3T of the pre-war population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The "Idle Launcher" Dilemma and the Erosion of Defense Depth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Although the Ukrainian military reported intercepting 274 drones and 33 missiles in the February 22 attacks, a seemingly impressive interception rate, the remaining missiles still accurately struck high-value energy facilities at 14 different locations. This high-density saturation attack exposed a fatal structural problem in the Ukrainian air defense system: "empty launchers."<\/p>\n\n\n\n Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat admitted that, faced with continuous saturation attacks, some air defense units were forced into idle status at critical moments due to the depletion of expensive Patriot or NASAMS interceptor missiles. The Russian military's tactic is to use inexpensive drones to consume expensive interceptor missiles, creating a defensive window, and then launching a fatal strike with ballistic missiles. This extremely asymmetrical cost-consuming mechanism is rapidly eroding Ukraine's strategic defense depth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To maintain basic defense capabilities by 2026, Ukraine faces a significant funding and material shortfall. An assessment by the European Commission indicates that Kyiv will still need to acquire at least $27 billion worth of military equipment this year from non-EU sources (primarily the United States), particularly Patriot missile defense systems and spare parts for F-16 fighter jets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In summary, the strategic review of the fourth anniversary reveals a harsh reality: this war is no longer a contest of a single decisive battle, but rather an extreme game of industrial capacity and social will between the two sides. Russia is attempting to exchange short-term suffering for Kyiv's long-term strategic capitulation; while for Ukraine and its Western allies, the ability to quickly replenish air defense ammunition and repair power grid nodes will be the sole indicator determining whether the country can survive this most brutal war of attrition in modern history.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" As the Russo-Ukrainian war enters its fifth year on February 24, 2026, the conflict has transcended a simple territorial dispute, evolving into a war of attrition testing industrial capacity and social resilience. On the eve of its fourth anniversary, Russia's massive airstrikes were not merely a military operation, but also a meticulously planned "anniversary politics" maneuver. Faced with Moscow's systematic attacks on infrastructure and saturation strikes, Ukraine is grappling with a dual crisis: depletion of air defense interception ammunition and the near collapse of its energy network.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3460,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[115],"class_list":["post-3459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-affairs","tag-115"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3459"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3459\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3461,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3459\/revisions\/3461"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3460"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/raypoon.hk\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}